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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the biggest shock.

Yet the current field is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still